Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Franz WagnerAssists9
- Franz WagnerRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Tyler KolekAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–102
- Q42.8Jase Richardson defensive rebound111–102
- Q42.8OG Anunoby misses 25-foot three point jumper111–102
- Q413.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2111–102
- Q413.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2110–102
- Q413.3Josh Hart personal foul109–102
- Q414.1Magic Full timeout109–102
- Q414.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2109–102
- Q414.1Jase Richardson enters the game for Anthony Black109–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:07Josh Hart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)ORL 87 – 89 NY · NY 53% → 69% +15NY 53% → 69%+15 pts
- Q45:37Franz Wagner makes driving layupORL 91 – 89 NY · ORL 42% → 54% +12ORL 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q45:12Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)ORL 91 – 91 NY · NY 45% → 58% +13NY 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q44:53Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 94 – 91 NY · ORL 43% → 62% +19ORL 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q43:26Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 98 – 91 NY · ORL 73% → 89% +15ORL 73% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8
- NY 79%
- Fair odds
- NY -255
- ORL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.2 – 114.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1653 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −3 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −26 · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +225 Elo | NY 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 110.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 18th of 301487 | Elo rating | 16542nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ORL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–47 | 57–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 43–37 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42 | 48–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–6 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Dec 13NY 132 @ ORL 120Picked NY 62%Hit
- Dec 7ORL 100 @ NY 106Picked NY 53%Hit
- Nov 22NY 121 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 52%Hit
- Nov 12ORL 124 @ NY 107Picked NY 62%Miss
- Jan 6ORL 103 @ NY 94Picked NY 80%Miss
- Dec 27NY 108 @ ORL 85Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 15NY 100 @ ORL 91Picked NY 61%Hit
- Dec 3ORL 106 @ NY 121Picked NY 65%Hit