New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints22
- OG AnunobyAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints36
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–107
- Q40.3Knicks offensive team rebound103–107
- Q40.3OG Anunoby misses 28-foot three point jumper103–107
- Q43.6OG Anunoby offensive rebound103–107
- Q43.6Andre Drummond enters the game for Miles McBride103–107
- Q43.6Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns103–107
- Q43.6Neemias Queta enters the game for Payton Pritchard103–107
- Q43.6Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2103–107
- Q43.6Knicks offensive team rebound103–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:13Jalen Brunson makes 15-foot pullup jump shotNY 93 – 96 BOS · NY 15% → 26% +11NY 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q42:54Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)NY 93 – 99 BOS · BOS 75% → 91% +15BOS 75% → 91%+15 pts
- Q42:26Josh Hart makes 27-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 96 – 99 BOS · NY 8% → 23% +16NY 8% → 23%+16 pts
- Q41:41Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot pullup jump shotNY 98 – 99 BOS · NY 19% → 38% +19NY 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:24Jayson Tatum makes 19-foot two point shotNY 98 – 101 BOS · BOS 63% → 83% +20BOS 63% → 83%+20 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML NY +120 / BOS -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- BOS 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 40.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- NY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.0 – 111.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1661 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −32 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +65 Elo | NY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301662 | Elo rating | 15805th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 57–45 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–37 | 36–29 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 32–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–11 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.
- Apr 9BOS 106 @ NY 112Picked NY 59%Hit
- Feb 8NY 111 @ BOS 89Picked BOS 58%Miss
- Dec 2NY 117 @ BOS 123Picked NY 51%Miss
- Oct 24BOS 95 @ NY 105Picked NY 61%Hit
- May 16BOS 81 @ NY 119PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- May 14NY 102 @ BOS 127PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit