Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAL went from 66% to 63% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints29
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- RJ BarrettRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–131
- Q41.8Jamison Battle makes 3-foot dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)125–131
- Q46.9Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2123–131
- Q46.9Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2123–130
- Q46.9Jaden Bradley personal foul123–129
- Q46.9Luka Doncic defensive rebound123–129
- Q46.9Allen Graves misses layup123–129
- Q49.2Matisse Thybulle bad pass
turnover (Allen Graves steals)123–129
- Q412.1Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)123–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Ja'Kobe Walter makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 3 – 0 LAL · TOR 37% → 43% +6TOR 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q110:34Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 5 – 3 LAL · LAL 52% → 58% +6LAL 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:21Matisse Thybulle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)TOR 6 – 6 LAL · LAL 56% → 62% +6LAL 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q18:26Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)TOR 6 – 9 LAL · LAL 62% → 68% +6LAL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q22:22Jake LaRavia makes 24-foot running jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)TOR 46 – 56 LAL · LAL 77% → 83% +6LAL 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lakers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 65%
- Fair odds
- LAL -168
- TOR +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 113.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +5 | TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −53 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +104 Elo | LAL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 118.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+10.6 | Margin | +5.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.2 | Defense rating | 111.919th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 24th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 148021st of 30 |
| 12th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15748th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−10 Elo- Jakob Poeltl left shoulder−10 Elo
Lakers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  TOR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–42 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 31–19 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–6 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.