Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 57% to 66% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints28
- Franz WagnerAssists11
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds7
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints41
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–114
- Q42.7Allen Graves enters the game for Scottie Barnes121–114
- Q42.7Scottie Barnes offensive foul turnover121–114
- Q42.7Scottie Barnes offensive foul121–114
- Q42.7Jamal Cain enters the game for Jase Richardson121–114
- Q42.7Raptors Full timeout121–114
- Q46.0Raptors defensive team rebound121–114
- Q46.0Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point jumper121–114
- Q49.3Jase Richardson enters the game for Jamal Cain121–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:48Scottie Barnes makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)ORL 95 – 91 TOR · TOR 30% → 41% +12TOR 30% → 41%+12 pts
- Q411:30Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 98 – 91 TOR · ORL 59% → 71% +12ORL 59% → 71%+12 pts
- Q48:38Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)ORL 100 – 102 TOR · TOR 52% → 66% +14TOR 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q46:56Anthony Black makes 28-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 105 – 103 TOR · ORL 39% → 55% +16ORL 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q44:43Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 115 – 107 TOR · ORL 76% → 89% +13ORL 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Raptors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML ORL +180 / TOR -218
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3.5
- TOR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -192
- ORL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | −20 | ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −29 · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −53 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +102 Elo | TOR 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 117.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 102.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−12.5 | Margin | +15.01st of 30 |
| 29th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 109.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 95.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.9 | Pace | 106.62nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 301581 | Opponent Elo | 145825th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Elo rating | 154310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–47 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Oct 28ORL 99 @ TOR 129Picked TOR 63%Hit
- Mar 29ORL 87 @ TOR 139Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 120 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 56%Hit
- Dec 29ORL 106 @ TOR 107Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 4TOR 114 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Mar 2TOR 104 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 70%Miss
- Jan 21ORL 93 @ TOR 109Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 3ORL 106 @ TOR 97Picked ORL 53%Hit