Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LAL went from 58% to 55% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints42
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Walker KesslerRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–138
- Q48.2Collin Sexton defensive rebound117–138
- Q48.2Ryan Conwell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot117–138
- Q414.3Bronny James makes driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)117–138
- Q424.5Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2117–136
- Q424.5Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2116–136
- Q424.5Bronny James shooting foul115–136
- Q443.7Nick Richards defensive rebound115–136
- Q443.7Jaden Hardy misses 27-foot three point jumper115–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:14Walker Kessler makes two point shotMIA 48 – 52 LAL · LAL 57% → 64% +8LAL 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q26:06Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 51 – 52 LAL · MIA 36% → 43% +8MIA 36% → 43%+8 pts
- Q24:00Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 57 – 58 LAL · MIA 35% → 43% +8MIA 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q23:22Luka Doncic makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 59 – 63 LAL · LAL 57% → 65% +8LAL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q221.0Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 72 – 77 LAL · MIA 25% → 32% +7MIA 25% → 32%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML MIA +115 / LAL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3
- LAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 60.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.5 – 120.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +5 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +77 Elo | LAL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 115.020th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +5.310th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 102.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148821st of 30 |
| 20th of 301470 | Elo rating | 15788th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.