Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 53% to 55% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Hawks- Kingston FlemingsPoints23
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–117
- Q45.2shot clock turnover129–117
- Q430.9Pelle Larsson defensive rebound129–117
- Q430.9Jalen Johnson misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot129–117
- Q439.1Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2129–117
- Q439.1Heat offensive team rebound128–117
- Q439.1Pelle Larsson misses free throw 1 of 2128–117
- Q439.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul128–117
- Q439.7Heat Full timeout128–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:20Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)MIA 107 – 100 ATL · ATL 12% → 21% +9ATL 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q47:18Jalen Johnson makes driving layup (Kingston Flemings assists)MIA 109 – 104 ATL · ATL 19% → 27% +8ATL 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q46:40Davion Mitchell makes running layupMIA 111 – 104 ATL · MIA 74% → 82% +8MIA 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q46:21Onyeka Okongwu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)MIA 111 – 107 ATL · ATL 17% → 30% +13ATL 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q45:38Davion Mitchell makes driving layupMIA 114 – 107 ATL · MIA 76% → 85% +8MIA 76% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML MIA +114 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 120.0 – 121.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −35 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Aaron Wiggins (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 111.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−12.8 | Margin | +9.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 30103.3 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 106.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.5 | Pace | 104.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 7th of 301545 | Opponent Elo | 15562nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301443 | Elo rating | 153911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–36 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–18 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 44–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–4 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Apr 12ATL 117 @ MIA 143Picked MIA 79%Hit
- Feb 20MIA 128 @ ATL 97Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Feb 3ATL 127 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 126 @ ATL 111Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 27ATL 112 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 53%Hit
- Feb 26ATL 109 @ MIA 131Picked MIA 58%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 86 @ ATL 98Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Dec 28MIA 110 @ ATL 120Picked MIA 51%Miss