Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints22
- Reed SheppardAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints26
- Jalen JohnsonAssists16
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–114
- Q42.0CJ McCollum makes two point shot121–114
- Q48.7Tari Eason makes running dunk (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)121–112
- Q417.5Alperen Sengun defensive rebound119–112
- Q417.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 24-foot three point jumper119–112
- Q418.9CJ McCollum enters the game for Jock Landale119–112
- Q418.9Hawks Full timeout119–112
- Q418.9Tari Eason enters the game for Reed Sheppard119–112
- Q418.9Jock Landale enters the game for Dyson Daniels119–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:45Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)HOU 25 – 23 ATL · ATL 38% → 45% +7ATL 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q210:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)HOU 32 – 29 ATL · ATL 35% → 42% +7ATL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:45Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 38 – 31 ATL · HOU 60% → 67% +7HOU 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q26:54Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)HOU 44 – 38 ATL · HOU 58% → 65% +7HOU 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:29Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 47 – 38 ATL · HOU 66% → 72% +7HOU 66% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -112 / ATL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 113.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +10 | −35 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +13 Elo | HOU 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 118.56th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 116.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +2.412th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 114.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301573 | Elo rating | 155610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–50 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–46 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 44–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.