Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 67% to 63% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints21
- Jock LandaleAssists4
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints29
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–120
- Q417.7Corey Kispert makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kingston Flemings assists)110–120
- Q425.5Jae'Sean Tate offensive foul turnover107–120
- Q425.5Jae'Sean Tate offensive foul107–120
- Q442.9Bogdan Bogdanovic defensive rebound107–120
- Q442.9Kingston Flemings misses free throw 1 of 1107–120
- Q442.9Isaiah Crawford shooting foul107–120
- Q442.9Kingston Flemings makes running layup107–120
- Q450.2Asa Newell defensive rebound105–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:46Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 59 – 60 HOU · HOU 54% → 62% +8HOU 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q21:18Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)ATL 61 – 63 HOU · HOU 57% → 65% +8HOU 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q21:11CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 64 – 63 HOU · ATL 35% → 43% +8ATL 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q49:39Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)ATL 93 – 95 HOU · ATL 23% → 35% +12ATL 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q49:03Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)ATL 93 – 98 HOU · HOU 65% → 77% +12HOU 65% → 77%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML ATL +160 / HOU -192
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -171
- ATL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.5 – 117.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +12 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +116 Elo | HOU 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30124.7 | Points scored | 121.06th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 111.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+15.7 | Margin | +9.710th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 301543 | Opponent Elo | 153212th of 30 |
| 11th of 301546 | Elo rating | 15828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 31–46 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.