Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIA went from 67% to 73% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Quenton JacksonPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Jarace WalkerRebounds6
Heat- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–145
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pacers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)125–145
- Q40.0Pacers offensive team rebound125–145
- Q40.0Braden Smith misses 26-foot turnaround jump shot125–145
- Q41.8Pacers Full timeout125–145
- Q41.8Ryan Conwell makes free throw 2 of 2125–145
- Q41.8Heat offensive team rebound125–144
- Q41.8Ryan Conwell misses free throw 1 of 2125–144
- Q41.8Jalen Slawson shooting foul125–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:58Jay Huff makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 45 – 40 MIA · IND 34% → 41% +7IND 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q29:01Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three pointerIND 51 – 44 MIA · IND 40% → 47% +7IND 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q27:21Quenton Jackson makes 25-foot three pointerIND 54 – 46 MIA · IND 43% → 50% +8IND 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q27:00Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)IND 54 – 49 MIA · MIA 49% → 57% +8MIA 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q25:16Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)IND 54 – 56 MIA · MIA 66% → 73% +7MIA 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Heat 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML IND +260 / MIA -325
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 65.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -275
- IND +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.5 – 123.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +25 | IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −58, Ivica Zubac −24, T.J. McConnell −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +110 Elo | MIA 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 113.017th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 120.824th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −7.822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 106.524th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30104.0 | Pace | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 0–324th of 30 |
| 29th of 301430 | Opponent Elo | 15434th of 30 |
| 25th of 301405 | Elo rating | 145920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+12 Elo- Obi Toppin lower back soreness−13 Elo
Heat
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  IND |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–42 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 22–18 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Mar 29MIA 118 @ IND 135Picked MIA 75%Miss
- Jan 10MIA 99 @ IND 123Picked MIA 68%Miss
- Dec 27IND 116 @ MIA 142Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Feb 28IND 120 @ MIA 125Picked IND 57%Miss
- Jan 2IND 128 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Nov 17MIA 110 @ IND 119Picked IND 60%Hit
- Nov 15MIA 124 @ IND 111Picked IND 62%Miss
- Apr 7MIA 115 @ IND 117Picked IND 55%Hit