Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIL went from 49% to 39% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds13
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–110
- Q410.3Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound102–110
- Q410.3Jarace Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper102–110
- Q416.8Jarace Walker offensive rebound102–110
- Q416.8Tyler Herro blocks Kobe Brown 's 25-foot three point jumper102–110
- Q418.4Braden Smith enters the game for Pascal Siakam102–110
- Q418.4Jalen Slawson enters the game for Quenton Jackson102–110
- Q418.4Kobe Brown enters the game for Aaron Nesmith102–110
- Q418.4Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton102–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q346.6Nate Ament makes 26-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)IND 82 – 82 MIL · MIL 33% → 44% +12MIL 33% → 44%+12 pts
- Q336.5Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 85 – 82 MIL · IND 56% → 67% +12IND 56% → 67%+12 pts
- Q411:26Brayden Burries makes tip in dunkIND 85 – 86 MIL · MIL 32% → 49% +16MIL 32% → 49%+16 pts
- Q46:48Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Larry Nance Jr. assists)IND 92 – 95 MIL · IND 23% → 38% +14IND 23% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:19Kasparas Jakucionis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 98 – 105 MIL · MIL 81% → 95% +13MIL 81% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML IND -175 / MIL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- IND 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- IND: Elo 48.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -156
- MIL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.5 – 117.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +61 | 0 | IND: Missing Ivica Zubac −17, T.J. McConnell −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +12 Elo | MIL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 119.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 129.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −10.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 109.714th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 118.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 30104.9 | Pace | 108.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–118th of 30 |
| 29th of 301396 | Opponent Elo | 141827th of 30 |
| 24th of 301416 | Elo rating | 141325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+60 Elo- Ivica Zubac injury/illness−20 Elo
Bucks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  IND |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–42 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 13–11 MIL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.
- Mar 15IND 123 @ MIL 134Picked MIL 72%Hit
- Feb 6IND 99 @ MIL 105Picked IND 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 111 @ IND 94Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Nov 3MIL 117 @ IND 115Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Apr 29MIL 118 @ IND 119PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit
- Apr 27IND 129 @ MIL 103PlayoffsPicked MIL 62%Miss
- Apr 25IND 101 @ MIL 117PlayoffsPicked MIL 64%Hit
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit