Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Norman PowellPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Jalen SmithRebounds13
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints34
- Ryan RollinsAssists6
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–125
- Q41.5Bucks offensive team rebound132–125
- Q41.5Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot132–125
- Q44.6Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2132–125
- Q44.6Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2131–125
- Q44.6Myles Turner personal take foul130–125
- Q45.8Tyler Herro makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot130–125
- Q49.9Bucks Full timeout130–123
- Q49.9Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2130–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:26Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 118 – 116 MIL · MIL 20% → 37% +17MIL 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q43:56Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)CHI 118 – 119 MIL · MIL 36% → 58% +21MIL 36% → 58%+21 pts
- Q43:03Isaac Okoro makes running layup (Tre Jones assists)CHI 122 – 121 MIL · CHI 41% → 58% +16CHI 41% → 58%+16 pts
- Q42:51Myles Turner makes two point shotCHI 122 – 123 MIL · MIL 42% → 59% +17MIL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q435.5Caleb Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2CHI 125 – 123 MIL · CHI 68% → 82% +15CHI 68% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML CHI -102 / MIL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- CHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.0 – 121.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −9 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +84 Elo | MIL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 110.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.2 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 19–2221st of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301397 | Elo rating | 142821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–8 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.
- Mar 1MIL 97 @ CHI 120Picked MIL 55%Miss
- Feb 3CHI 115 @ MIL 131Picked CHI 52%Miss
- Dec 27MIL 112 @ CHI 103Picked CHI 53%Miss
- Nov 7CHI 110 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Dec 28MIL 111 @ CHI 116Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 112 @ CHI 91Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Nov 20CHI 106 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 133 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 78%Miss