Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points21
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists4
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints28
- Joel EmbiidAssists10
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–127
- Q421.5Adem Bona defensive rebound116–127
- Q421.5Kasparas Jakucionis misses two point shot116–127
- Q429.9Caleb Love enters the game for Joel Embiid116–127
- Q429.9Justin Edwards enters the game for Jaylen Brown116–127
- Q429.9Adem Bona enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope116–127
- Q429.9Labaron Philon Jr. enters the game for VJ Edgecombe116–127
- Q429.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2116–127
- Q429.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2116–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:08Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MIL 56 – 54 PHI · PHI 63% → 71% +8PHI 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:29Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)MIL 69 – 70 PHI · PHI 68% → 76% +8PHI 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q34:25AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIL 82 – 82 PHI · MIL 21% → 29% +8MIL 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q32:57Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MIL 82 – 87 PHI · PHI 76% → 84% +8PHI 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q41:39Jaylen Brown makes 27-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)MIL 114 – 120 PHI · PHI 85% → 97% +12PHI 85% → 97%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -12.5
- ML MIL +455 / PHI -625
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9
- PHI 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 81.4%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -478
- MIL +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 123.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +44 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing LeBron James −31 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +257 Elo | PHI 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 86.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 86.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301417 | Elo rating | 153614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 25–28 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 45–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–4 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Apr 12MIL 106 @ PHI 126Picked PHI 89%Hit
- Jan 27MIL 122 @ PHI 139Picked PHI 76%Hit
- Dec 5PHI 116 @ MIL 101Picked PHI 51%Hit
- Nov 20PHI 123 @ MIL 114Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Apr 3MIL 126 @ PHI 113Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Feb 9PHI 127 @ MIL 135Picked PHI 60%Miss
- Jan 19PHI 109 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 84%Hit
- Oct 23MIL 124 @ PHI 109Picked MIL 63%Hit