Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Nets- Nolan TraorePoints17
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Josh MinottRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–109
- Q413.9shot clock turnover136–109
- Q440.0Jalen Slawson defensive rebound136–109
- Q440.0Joshua Jefferson misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot136–109
- Q456.5Kelly Oubre Jr. makes driving dunk (Quenton Jackson assists)136–109
- Q41:12Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound134–109
- Q41:12Joshua Jefferson misses 5-foot hook shot134–109
- Q41:20Jarace Walker makes 1-foot dunk134–109
- Q41:38Danny Wolf makes 23-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)132–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:38Josh Minott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)IND 32 – 35 BKN · BKN 38% → 45% +7BKN 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q23:32Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot running jump shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 49 – 45 BKN · IND 64% → 71% +7IND 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q23:10Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)IND 49 – 48 BKN · BKN 29% → 36% +7BKN 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q22:45Moritz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)IND 49 – 51 BKN · BKN 37% → 45% +8BKN 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q22:29Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumperIND 52 – 51 BKN · IND 55% → 63% +8IND 55% → 63%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pacers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 64%
- Fair odds
- IND -181
- BKN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 111.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +75 | +27 | IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | IND +97 Elo | IND 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 105.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −10.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 106.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 116.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–33 | Road vs home | 12–2928th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 25th of 301402 | Elo rating | 135528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  IND |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–42 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 32–43 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–3 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Apr 9IND 123 @ BKN 94Picked IND 59%Hit
- Feb 11IND 115 @ BKN 110Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Nov 5BKN 112 @ IND 103Picked IND 69%Miss
- Mar 22BKN 103 @ IND 108Picked IND 83%Hit
- Mar 20BKN 99 @ IND 105Picked IND 73%Hit
- Jan 6IND 113 @ BKN 99Picked IND 81%Hit
- Dec 4IND 90 @ BKN 99Picked IND 59%Miss
- Apr 3IND 111 @ BKN 115Picked IND 60%Miss