Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 47% to 30% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists14
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q45.4Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunk (Quenton Jackson assists)114–109
- Q412.3Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2114–107
- Q412.3Jarace Walker enters the game for Pascal Siakam113–107
- Q412.3Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2113–107
- Q412.3Pascal Siakam personal take foul112–107
- Q419.676ers Full timeout112–107
- Q419.6Joel Embiid enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope112–107
- Q419.6Quenton Jackson enters the game for Obi Toppin112–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:32LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 87 – 92 IND · PHI 22% → 35% +12PHI 22% → 35%+12 pts
- Q43:07Andrew Nembhard makes 14-foot fade away jump shotPHI 101 – 100 IND · IND 23% → 37% +14IND 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q42:43Joel Embiid makes 11-foot two point shotPHI 103 – 100 IND · PHI 64% → 78% +15PHI 64% → 78%+15 pts
- Q41:28Obi Toppin makes layup (Pascal Siakam assists)PHI 106 – 104 IND · IND 10% → 25% +15IND 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q41:10Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 109 – 104 IND · PHI 77% → 96% +19PHI 77% → 96%+19 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML PHI -278 / IND +225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 72.5%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -239
- IND +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.0 – 113.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | −1 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −60, Ivica Zubac −25, T.J. McConnell −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +169 Elo | PHI 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 116.512th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 115.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 30103.2 | Offense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 4th of 30100.4 | Defense rating | 110.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.4 | Pace | 104.011th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 6th of 301553 | Opponent Elo | 140229th of 30 |
| 15th of 301526 | Elo rating | 140825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+2 Elo- Ivica Zubac left ankle sprain−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–43 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–18 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 23–25 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 45–48 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 10PHI 105 @ IND 94Picked PHI 88%Hit
- Feb 24PHI 135 @ IND 114Picked PHI 81%Hit
- Jan 19IND 104 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 69%Hit
- Dec 12IND 105 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Mar 14IND 112 @ PHI 100Picked IND 84%Hit
- Jan 18PHI 102 @ IND 115Picked IND 79%Hit
- Dec 13IND 121 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 69%Miss
- Oct 27PHI 118 @ IND 114Picked IND 75%Miss