Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists5
- Adem BonaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–93
- Q421.8Ronald Holland II defensive rebound106–93
- Q421.8Tyrese Maxey misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot106–93
- Q434.1Ronald Holland II makes 3-foot two point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)106–93
- Q456.1Javonte Green defensive rebound104–93
- Q456.1Tyrese Maxey misses driving floating jump shot104–93
- Q41:03Ronald Holland II enters the game for Paul Reed104–93
- Q41:03Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson104–93
- Q41:03John Collins enters the game for Daniss Jenkins104–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:31Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 64 – 56 PHI · DET 62% → 71% +9DET 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q36:48Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 67 – 58 PHI · DET 65% → 74% +9DET 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:22Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 72 – 63 PHI · DET 67% → 76% +9DET 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q31:30Labaron Philon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DET 74 – 67 PHI · PHI 19% → 28% +9PHI 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q410:02Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 82 – 75 PHI · DET 65% → 76% +12DET 65% → 76%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -131
- DET +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.0 – 113.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −66 | +44 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −29, Ausar Thompson (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Missing LeBron James −31 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.914th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–13 | Road vs home | 23–1817th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301587 | Elo rating | 154012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–46 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–50 | 45–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 4DET 116 @ PHI 93Picked DET 60%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 109 @ DET 131Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 14PHI 105 @ DET 114Picked DET 52%Hit
- Nov 9DET 111 @ PHI 108Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 7PHI 112 @ DET 125Picked PHI 67%Miss
- Nov 30PHI 111 @ DET 96Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Oct 30DET 105 @ PHI 95Picked PHI 62%Miss
- Apr 9DET 102 @ PHI 120Picked PHI 82%Hit