Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 47% to 55% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints26
- Jalen GreenAssists8
- Dillon BrooksRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints34
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Charles BasseyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–116
- Q40.7Suns offensive team rebound113–116
- Q40.7Collin Gillespie misses 36-foot running jump shot113–116
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks defensive rebound113–116
- Q43.1Brandin Podziemski misses 1-foot tip shot113–116
- Q45.1Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound113–116
- Q45.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Georges Niang113–116
- Q45.1Stephen Curry misses free throw 2 of 2113–116
- Q45.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:29Dillon Brooks makes 16-foot pullup jump shotPHX 106 – 104 GS · PHX 48% → 60% +12PHX 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q43:54Georges Niang makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)PHX 106 – 109 GS · GS 52% → 72% +21GS 52% → 72%+21 pts
- Q43:38Devin Booker makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)PHX 108 – 109 GS · PHX 27% → 41% +14PHX 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q414.2Jalen Green makes 6-foot driving dunkPHX 112 – 113 GS · PHX 1% → 23% +21PHX 1% → 23%+21 pts
- Q47.4Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 112 – 114 GS · GS 85% → 98% +13GS 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML PHX +115 / GS -136
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- GS: Elo 55.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -124
- PHX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.5 – 115.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | −2 | PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −50, Kristaps Porzingis −35, Brandon Williams −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +40 Elo | GS 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 117.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.5 | Points allowed | 114.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−12.5 | Margin | +2.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 100.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
| 1st of 301552 | Opponent Elo | 15365th of 30 |
| 19th of 301480 | Elo rating | 152113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−2 Elo- Brandon Williams left quad contusion−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHX |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–37 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 7–6 GS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- Oct 24GS 122 @ PHX 131Picked PHX 77%Hit
- Feb 5GS 101 @ PHX 97Picked PHX 66%Miss
- Dec 20PHX 116 @ GS 119Picked GS 67%Hit
- Dec 18GS 98 @ PHX 99Picked GS 54%Miss
- Nov 4PHX 107 @ GS 118Picked GS 79%Hit
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit