Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHX went from 36% to 38% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds9
Suns- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Collin GillespieAssists10
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–120
- Q40.5Suns offensive team rebound127–120
- Q40.5Jordan Goodwin misses 22-foot jumper127–120
- Q40.8Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2127–120
- Q40.8Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2126–120
- Q40.8Devin Booker personal take foul125–120
- Q43.7Christian Braun defensive rebound125–120
- Q43.7Jordan Goodwin misses running pullup jump shot125–120
- Q46.3Aaron Gordon bad pass
turnover (Miles Bridges steals)125–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:50Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 64 – 63 PHX · DEN 53% → 61% +8DEN 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q410:03Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three pointer (Luke Kennard assists)DEN 103 – 98 PHX · PHX 15% → 24% +9PHX 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q49:21Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 106 – 98 PHX · DEN 76% → 86% +9DEN 76% → 86%+9 pts
- Q47:35Jamal Murray makes 29-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 111 – 102 PHX · DEN 82% → 90% +9DEN 82% → 90%+9 pts
- Q47:21Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 111 – 105 PHX · PHX 9% → 18% +9PHX 9% → 18%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -180 / PHX +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 62.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -161
- PHX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.0 – 113.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | −12 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −11 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +90 Elo | DEN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 109.325th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 123.727th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.3 | Margin | −14.328th of 30 |
| 19th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 108.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 122.530th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.626th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15424th of 30 |
| 10th of 301539 | Elo rating | 148619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DEN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 49–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–34 | 23–16 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–35 | 40–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–3 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 24DEN 125 @ PHX 123Picked DEN 66%Hit
- Nov 29DEN 130 @ PHX 112Picked DEN 61%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 111 @ DEN 133Picked DEN 85%Hit
- Mar 7PHX 141 @ DEN 149Picked DEN 76%Hit
- Feb 8DEN 122 @ PHX 105Picked DEN 69%Hit
- Dec 25DEN 100 @ PHX 110Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Dec 23PHX 90 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Mar 27PHX 104 @ DEN 97Picked DEN 62%Miss