Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 28% to 38% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–91
- Q46.2shot clock turnover104–91
- Q430.3Dejounte Murray makes 1-foot running dunk (Derik Queen assists)104–91
- Q433.2Nikola Jokic bad pass
turnover (Zion Williamson steals)104–89
- Q438.7Nikola Jokic offensive rebound104–89
- Q438.7Christian Braun misses 23-foot three point jumper104–89
- Q41:03Nikola Jokic defensive rebound104–89
- Q41:03Trey Murphy III misses 30-foot three point jumper104–89
- Q41:08Pelicans Full timeout104–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:27Herbert Jones makes alley oop dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)DEN 83 – 78 NO · NO 16% → 23% +7NO 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q47:58Jamal Murray makes driving layupDEN 85 – 78 NO · DEN 78% → 85% +7DEN 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q47:24Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 88 – 80 NO · DEN 78% → 88% +10DEN 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q46:40Zion Williamson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)DEN 88 – 83 NO · NO 11% → 21% +10NO 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q45:44Jamal Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 91 – 83 NO · DEN 81% → 91% +10DEN 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -185 / NO +154
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -165
- NO +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 118.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +15 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +109 Elo | DEN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 124.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 128.029th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −3.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 115.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 118.426th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.6 | Pace | 104.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 13th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 142628th of 30 |
| 13th of 301531 | Elo rating | 141724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–42 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–34 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 31–34 |
| Overs–unders | 53–35 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 9–2 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Oct 24NO 135 @ DEN 141Picked DEN 80%Hit
- Jan 13DEN 122 @ NO 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 125 @ NO 118Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Oct 29NO 88 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 5NO 119 @ DEN 144Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 3NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Dec 22DEN 132 @ NO 129Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Nov 15DEN 94 @ NO 101Picked DEN 55%Miss