Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
OKC went from 74% to 73% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints20
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Thunder- Ajay MitchellPoints30
- Ajay MitchellAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–127
- Q47.2Thunder offensive team rebound114–127
- Q47.2Duop Reath blocks Kenrich Williams's layup114–127
- Q413.0Kenrich Williams offensive rebound114–127
- Q413.0Bennett Stirtz misses 27-foot three point jumper114–127
- Q437.8Josh Dix defensive rebound114–127
- Q437.8Rasheer Fleming misses driving layup114–127
- Q449.7Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound114–127
- Q449.7Josh Dix misses 23-foot three point jumper114–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:02Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)PHX 11 – 15 OKC · OKC 74% → 79% +5OKC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q13:10Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 19 – 21 OKC · PHX 20% → 25% +5PHX 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q12:46Bennett Stirtz makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)PHX 19 – 24 OKC · OKC 75% → 80% +5OKC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q12:28Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three pointer (Devin Booker assists)PHX 22 – 24 OKC · PHX 20% → 25% +5PHX 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q25:20Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)PHX 44 – 45 OKC · PHX 23% → 29% +6PHX 23% → 29%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML PHX +260 / OKC -325
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -275
- PHX +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.5 – 115.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | −43 | PHX: Missing Mark Williams −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −26, Jalen Williams −18 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +134 Elo | OKC 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 105.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 34–71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 16591st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 49–37 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 43–46 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 55–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–13 OKC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
- Apr 27OKC 131 @ PHX 122PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Apr 25OKC 121 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked OKC 76%Hit
- Apr 22PHX 107 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 19PHX 84 @ OKC 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 90%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 135 @ OKC 103Picked OKC 73%Miss
- Feb 11OKC 136 @ PHX 109Picked OKC 71%Hit
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit