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Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast

FinalDAZN CLE

Away

Cavaliers

5-6

112–124

at

Home

Hornets

4-7

CLE 72%CHA 28%

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Spectrum Center · DAZN CLE

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.

CHA favored CLE favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4CHA50%CLE

How the forecast moved

CHA went from 39% to 28% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 9:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (CHA win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
20%33%45%Fri 12 AMSat 9 PMMon 7 PM

Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 PM ESTJarrett Allen out · forecast CHA 37%

Sun, Nov 8, 2:27 PM ESTJarrett Allen back · forecast CHA 37%

Sun, Nov 8, 5:40 PM ESTBrandon Miller out · forecast CHA 36%

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cavaliers
Hornets

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game112–124
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
  • Q419.1Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Naz Reid112–124
  • Q419.1shot clock turnover112–124
  • Q443.6Sion James defensive rebound112–124
  • Q443.6Meleek Thomas misses driving layup112–124
  • Q455.5Meleek Thomas defensive rebound112–124
  • Q455.5Naz Reid misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot112–124
  • Q41:16Naz Reid defensive rebound112–124
  • Q41:16Ryan Kalkbrenner blocks Craig Porter Jr.'s driving layup112–124

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q29:50Meleek Thomas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 35 – 39 CHA · CLE 53% → 60% +7
  2. Q29:12Tidjane Salaun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)CLE 35 – 42 CHA · CHA 40% → 48% +7
  3. Q27:41Tidjane Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CLE 39 – 47 CHA · CHA 44% → 51% +8
  4. Q27:11James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 42 – 50 CHA · CLE 41% → 48% +8
  5. Q26:47Tidjane Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Liam McNeeley assists)CLE 42 – 53 CHA · CHA 52% → 59% +8

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Cavaliers 72%

StrongMiss
CLE 72%CHA 28%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
CLE -8.5
ML CLE -306 / CHA +248
Pre-line forecast
CLE 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -4.5
CLE 67%
Ratings vs. market
−5.5 pts
CLE: Elo 66.9%, market 72.4%
Fair odds
CLE -262
CHA +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
CLE 76%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
CLE 112.5 – 104.0 CHA
Posted spread, posted total 216.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLECHAWhy
Team rating15661467Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−16−75CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen (40% to sit) −11 · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −29, Brandon Miller −15, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsCLE +122 EloCLE 66.9%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 64.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 64.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 72.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Hornets compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatCHA
10th of 30117.0Points scored96.330th of 30
17th of 30114.1Points allowed110.210th of 30
16th of 30+2.9Margin−13.929th of 30
11th of 30113.2Offense rating98.730th of 30
13th of 30110.4Defense rating112.920th of 30
8th of 30102.4Pace97.330th of 30
21st of 301–3Road vs home2–421st of 30
6th of 301527Opponent Elo147024th of 30
9th of 301566Elo rating146719th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Hornets

−84 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersHornets
12501350145015501650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLECHA
Against the spread2–63–7
Last 102–63–7
Favorite1–41–2
Underdog1–22–5
Overs–unders4–43–7
Overs–unders, last 104–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 8–3 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.