Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHA went from 38% to 48% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints38
- Dean WadeAssists10
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds8
Hornets- Grayson AllenPoints27
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–104
- Q44.5VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound109–104
- Q44.5Brandon Miller misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot109–104
- Q45.2Hornets Full timeout109–104
- Q45.2Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2109–104
- Q45.2Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
- Q45.2Sion James personal foul107–104
- Q46.576ers Full timeout107–104
- Q46.5Sion James enters the game for Royce O'Neale107–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:45Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)PHI 86 – 92 CHA · CHA 64% → 76% +13CHA 64% → 76%+13 pts
- Q43:41Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)PHI 94 – 101 CHA · CHA 77% → 90% +13CHA 77% → 90%+13 pts
- Q43:11Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)PHI 97 – 101 CHA · PHI 8% → 21% +13PHI 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q42:17Anfernee Simons makes running layup (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 100 – 101 CHA · PHI 24% → 41% +17PHI 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q436.1VJ Edgecombe makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 105 – 101 CHA · PHI 68% → 97% +29PHI 68% → 97%+29 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -118 / CHA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -107
- CHA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.5 – 105.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −61 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −69, LeBron James −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −29, Coby White −11, Kylan Boswell −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 97.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.0 | Points allowed | 106.04th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.7 | Margin | −8.724th of 30 |
| 25th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 98.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.4 | Defense rating | 107.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.4 | Pace | 98.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 6th of 301540 | Opponent Elo | 143927th of 30 |
| 11th of 301537 | Elo rating | 151814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 0–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 0–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–1 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Mar 28PHI 118 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 69%Miss
- Jan 26PHI 93 @ CHA 130Picked CHA 53%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 121 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 98 @ PHI 108Picked PHI 84%Hit
- Dec 16PHI 121 @ CHA 108Picked PHI 55%Hit
- Dec 3PHI 110 @ CHA 104Picked PHI 62%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 105 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Mar 16CHA 98 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 61%Hit