Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHA went from 72% to 56% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints39
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–110
- Q42.7Brandon Miller defensive rebound103–110
- Q42.7Trae Young misses 23-foot fade away jump shot103–110
- Q46.5Tre Johnson enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly103–110
- Q46.5Trae Young enters the game for Deandre Ayton103–110
- Q46.5Bub Carrington enters the game for Alex Sarr103–110
- Q46.5Wizards Full timeout103–110
- Q46.5Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Tre Johnson103–110
- Q46.5Deandre Ayton enters the game for Trae Young103–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:59Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)WSH 59 – 64 CHA · CHA 61% → 70% +9CHA 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q47:17Naz Reid makes two point shotWSH 82 – 88 CHA · CHA 72% → 81% +8CHA 72% → 81%+8 pts
- Q46:16Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)WSH 84 – 93 CHA · CHA 82% → 91% +9CHA 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q41:13Trae Young makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotWSH 100 – 103 CHA · WSH 5% → 16% +11WSH 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q450.9Brandon Miller makes 12-foot two point shotWSH 100 – 105 CHA · CHA 88% → 98% +9CHA 88% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hornets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML WSH +120 / CHA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3.5
- CHA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 63.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.5 – 115.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | −62 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −2, AJ Dybantsa −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −30, Coby White −12, Naz Reid (40% to sit) −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +97 Elo | CHA 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 102.029th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −11.725th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 99.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 110.617th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.6 | Pace | 102.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301447 | Opponent Elo | 144622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301343 | Elo rating | 153513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–49 | 50–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 23–14 |
| Underdog | 31–46 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 32–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–6 CHA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Feb 22CHA 129 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 81%Hit
- Jan 24WSH 115 @ CHA 119Picked CHA 80%Hit
- Dec 23WSH 109 @ CHA 126Picked CHA 69%Hit
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss
- Dec 19CHA 114 @ WSH 123Picked CHA 59%Miss