Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Trae YoungPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds14
Bulls- Caleb WilsonPoints30
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Caleb WilsonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–120
- Q40.2Buddy Hield makes 1-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)124–120
- Q42.7Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2124–118
- Q42.7Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2123–118
- Q42.7Buddy Hield personal take foul122–118
- Q43.4Trae Young enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly122–118
- Q43.4Tre Johnson enters the game for Justin Champagnie122–118
- Q43.4Bub Carrington enters the game for Alex Sarr122–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:18Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 38 – 39 CHI · WSH 37% → 44% +7WSH 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q210.0Tre Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 57 – 62 CHI · WSH 25% → 33% +8WSH 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q310:17Trae Young makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 64 – 64 CHI · WSH 38% → 47% +9WSH 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q35:58Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)WSH 78 – 71 CHI · CHI 22% → 30% +8CHI 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:37Bub Carrington makes 24-foot turnaround jump shot (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 81 – 71 CHI · WSH 70% → 79% +8WSH 70% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bulls 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML WSH +110 / CHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 121.0 – 123.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +75 | −10 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −2, AJ Dybantsa −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +21 Elo | CHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.9 | Points allowed | 121.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | −5.222nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.3 | Defense rating | 116.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.4 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–35 | Road vs home | 18–2322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 30th of 301336 | Elo rating | 140825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–49 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 31–46 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–8 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Apr 9CHI 119 @ WSH 108Picked CHI 71%Hit
- Apr 7CHI 129 @ WSH 98Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Nov 22WSH 120 @ CHI 121Picked CHI 82%Hit
- Apr 11WSH 89 @ CHI 119Picked CHI 85%Hit
- Jan 10WSH 105 @ CHI 138Picked CHI 81%Hit
- Jan 1CHI 107 @ WSH 125Picked CHI 68%Miss
- Nov 26CHI 127 @ WSH 108Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Apr 12CHI 129 @ WSH 127Picked CHI 52%Hit