Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 62% to 71% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints31
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Brandon MillerRebounds12
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Ausar ThompsonAssists8
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–97
- Q410.6Dennis Schroder bad pass
turnover (Daniss Jenkins steals)89–97
- Q421.8Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson89–97
- Q421.8Ausar Thompson personal foul89–97
- Q431.1Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)89–97
- Q454.2Dennis Schroder makes 29-foot three pointer89–94
- Q41:01Moussa Diabate defensive rebound86–94
- Q41:01Duncan Robinson misses reverse layup86–94
- Q41:23Pistons Full timeout86–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:54Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CHA 54 – 46 DET · CHA 50% → 59% +9CHA 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q38:32Paul Reed makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 56 – 51 DET · DET 39% → 49% +9DET 39% → 49%+9 pts
- Q37:55Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 56 – 54 DET · DET 48% → 58% +10DET 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q37:04Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Javonte Green assists)CHA 56 – 57 DET · DET 58% → 67% +9DET 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q46:31Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)CHA 79 – 85 DET · DET 74% → 85% +12DET 74% → 85%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML CHA +235 / DET -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- DET: Elo 57.0%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -249
- CHA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 102.5 – 110.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | −53 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −28, Coby White −10, Kylan Boswell −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −29, Isaiah Joe −4, Ausar Thompson (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +49 Elo | DET 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.0 | Points scored | 113.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 107.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−7.0 | Margin | +6.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.0 | Offense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 105.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 28th of 301415 | Opponent Elo | 15535th of 30 |
| 10th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15946th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–32 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–14 | 36–42 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 32–50 | 46–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–8 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Apr 10DET 118 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 66%Miss
- Feb 9DET 110 @ CHA 104Picked DET 55%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 86 @ DET 112Picked DET 80%Hit
- Feb 9CHA 102 @ DET 112Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 3CHA 94 @ DET 98Picked DET 72%Hit
- Nov 21DET 121 @ CHA 123Picked DET 57%Miss
- Nov 6DET 107 @ CHA 108Picked DET 51%Miss
- Mar 11CHA 97 @ DET 114Picked DET 53%Hit