Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NY went from 66% to 58% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 11:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Paul ReedPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Paul ReedRebounds9
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–111
- Q419.4Ebuka Okorie bad pass
turnover (Tyler Kolek steals)97–111
- Q428.7Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 297–111
- Q428.7Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 297–110
- Q428.7Taurean Prince personal foul97–109
- Q438.5Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound97–109
- Q438.5Taurean Prince misses 25-foot three point jumper97–109
- Q459.3James Wiseman bad pass
turnover (Taurean Prince steals)97–109
- Q41:03James Wiseman offensive rebound97–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:00Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot three pointer (Paul Reed assists)DET 30 – 22 NY · DET 54% → 61% +7DET 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q29:19Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)DET 38 – 30 NY · NY 30% → 37% +7NY 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q26:00Landry Shamet makes 25-foot running jump shot (Miles McBride assists)DET 42 – 37 NY · NY 36% → 43% +8NY 36% → 43%+8 pts
- Q23:47Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)DET 45 – 46 NY · NY 51% → 59% +8NY 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q39:52Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot running jump shot (Josh Hart assists)DET 50 – 60 NY · NY 75% → 82% +7NY 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML DET +130 / NY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- NY: Elo 66.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 111.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | −1 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −28, Ausar Thompson (40% to sit) −2, Isaiah Joe (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Usual rotation (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +122 Elo | NY 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 101.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.7 | Points allowed | 108.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+12.7 | Margin | −6.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 100.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.2 | Defense rating | 107.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–219th of 30 |
| 12th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15448th of 30 |
| 5th of 301601 | Elo rating | 16342nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–46 | 57–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 43–37 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 46–50 | 48–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–8 NY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Feb 19DET 126 @ NY 111Picked NY 59%Miss
- Feb 6NY 80 @ DET 118Picked DET 66%Hit
- Jan 5NY 90 @ DET 121Picked NY 53%Miss
- May 1NY 116 @ DET 113PlayoffsPicked DET 51%Miss
- Apr 29DET 106 @ NY 103PlayoffsPicked NY 64%Miss
- Apr 27NY 94 @ DET 93PlayoffsPicked DET 56%Miss
- Apr 24NY 118 @ DET 116PlayoffsPicked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 21DET 100 @ NY 94PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Miss