Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 41% to 50% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints19
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Wizards- Anthony DavisPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game79–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter79–95
- Q41.9PJ Hall defensive rebound79–95
- Q41.9Tre Mann misses driving layup79–95
- Q411.7Christian Anderson makes 11-foot two point shot79–95
- Q420.9Christian Anderson defensive rebound77–95
- Q420.9Will Riley misses 25-foot three point jumper77–95
- Q439.1Alex Sarr defensive rebound77–95
- Q439.1PJ Hall misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot77–95
- Q448.9Tre Mann enters the game for Trae Young77–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:55Tidjane Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 34 – 30 WSH · CHA 53% → 60% +7CHA 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q28:04Bub Carrington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)CHA 36 – 35 WSH · WSH 40% → 47% +8WSH 40% → 47%+8 pts
- Q25:24Bub Carrington makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Dybantsa assists)CHA 38 – 42 WSH · WSH 52% → 60% +8WSH 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q21:54Sion James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)CHA 44 – 46 WSH · CHA 36% → 45% +8CHA 36% → 45%+8 pts
- Q311:38Kyshawn George makes 25-foot three pointer (Trae Young assists)CHA 46 – 54 WSH · WSH 64% → 72% +8WSH 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hornets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML CHA -112 / WSH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1
- CHA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHA: Elo 53.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHA -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.0 – 108.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +87 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −29, Coby White −11, Kylan Boswell −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +24 Elo | CHA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30101.0 | Points scored | 113.617th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 115.819th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−7.2 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 30101.8 | Offense rating | 110.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 112.921st of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.216th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
| 26th of 301452 | Opponent Elo | 148520th of 30 |
| 12th of 301533 | Elo rating | 133330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 0–5 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–5 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 7–6 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Oct 26WSH 103 @ CHA 110Picked CHA 56%Hit
- Feb 22CHA 129 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 81%Hit
- Jan 24WSH 115 @ CHA 119Picked CHA 80%Hit
- Dec 23WSH 109 @ CHA 126Picked CHA 69%Hit
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss