Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CLE went from 79% to 77% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- AJ DybantsaPoints19
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds5
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints24
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q421.4Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound111–121
- Q421.4Anthony Davis misses 30-foot three point jumper111–121
- Q429.7Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
- Q429.7Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
- Q429.7Anthony Davis personal foul111–119
- Q432.0Evan Mobley defensive rebound111–119
- Q432.0Kyshawn George misses 24-foot three point shot111–119
- Q434.2Bub Carrington enters the game for Alex Sarr111–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:30Trae Young makes 34-foot three pointerWSH 97 – 96 CLE · WSH 29% → 41% +12WSH 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q49:50Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)WSH 97 – 99 CLE · CLE 58% → 71% +13CLE 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q46:16AJ Dybantsa makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 105 – 104 CLE · WSH 34% → 45% +11WSH 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q45:28Meleek Thomas makes running layupWSH 105 – 106 CLE · CLE 54% → 66% +12CLE 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q44:01Mario Hezonja makes 23-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)WSH 105 – 111 CLE · CLE 77% → 90% +13CLE 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cavaliers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML WSH +310 / CLE -395
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 74.6%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -327
- WSH +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.5 – 125.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +17 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −2, Justin Champagnie −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +188 Elo | CLE 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 119.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 120.019th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.716th of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 107.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 108.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 30103.6 | Pace | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 30th of 301338 | Elo rating | 15559th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–49 | 40–60 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 30–48 |
| Underdog | 31–46 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–35 | 52–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–12 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 12.
- Apr 12WSH 117 @ CLE 130Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Feb 11WSH 113 @ CLE 138Picked CLE 89%Hit
- Dec 12CLE 130 @ WSH 126Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Nov 7CLE 148 @ WSH 115Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 134 @ WSH 124Picked CLE 93%Hit
- Dec 13WSH 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Dec 3WSH 87 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Oct 26CLE 135 @ WSH 116Picked CLE 79%Hit