New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 52% to 47% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–98
- Q43.6VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound93–98
- Q43.6OG Anunoby misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot93–98
- Q47.2Jalen Brunson enters the game for Landry Shamet93–98
- Q47.2Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Miles McBride93–98
- Q47.2Dean Wade enters the game for Joel Embiid93–98
- Q47.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 293–98
- Q47.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 293–97
- Q47.2Miles McBride personal take foul93–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:46Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 85 – 87 PHI · NY 21% → 38% +17NY 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q42:29Mikal Bridges makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)NY 87 – 89 PHI · NY 18% → 33% +15NY 18% → 33%+15 pts
- Q41:32Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 90 – 89 PHI · NY 28% → 62% +34NY 28% → 62%+34 pts
- Q41:10LeBron James makes 12-foot fade away jump shotNY 90 – 91 PHI · PHI 36% → 63% +26PHI 36% → 63%+26 pts
- Q433.6VJ Edgecombe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 90 – 94 PHI · PHI 68% → 97% +29PHI 68% → 97%+29 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NY: Elo 49.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.0 – 112.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +69 | NY: Usual rotation · PHI: Missing Jaylen Brown (40% to sit) −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 110.820th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 107.46th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +3.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 104.526th of 30 |
| 11th of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 101.32nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.2 | Pace | 105.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 152210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301646 | Elo rating | 152912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 57–45 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–37 | 27–18 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 45–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 17–6 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.
- Oct 20PHI 106 @ NY 100Picked NY 62%Miss
- May 10NY 144 @ PHI 114PlayoffsPicked NY 53%Hit
- May 8NY 108 @ PHI 94PlayoffsPicked PHI 58%Miss
- May 6PHI 102 @ NY 108PlayoffsPicked NY 79%Hit
- May 4PHI 98 @ NY 137PlayoffsPicked NY 71%Hit
- Feb 11NY 138 @ PHI 89Picked NY 55%Hit
- Jan 24NY 112 @ PHI 109Picked NY 51%Hit
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss