New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 29% to 30% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints38
- Tyler KolekAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Bulls- Norman PowellPoints30
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–127
- Q40.3Bulls offensive team rebound133–127
- Q40.3Caleb Wilson misses 31-foot three point jumper133–127
- Q41.7OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2133–127
- Q41.7OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2132–127
- Q41.7Jalen Smith personal take foul131–127
- Q43.8OG Anunoby defensive rebound131–127
- Q43.8Norman Powell misses 28-foot three point jumper131–127
- Q46.2Matas Buzelis enters the game for Leonard Miller131–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Norman Powell makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Smith assists)NY 102 – 104 CHI · CHI 36% → 50% +14CHI 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q47:52Leonard Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caleb Wilson assists)NY 104 – 107 CHI · CHI 41% → 57% +15CHI 41% → 57%+15 pts
- Q47:32Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 107 – 107 CHI · NY 43% → 58% +16NY 43% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:26Landry Shamet makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 112 – 109 CHI · NY 58% → 73% +16NY 58% → 73%+16 pts
- Q45:57Caleb Wilson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)NY 114 – 112 CHI · CHI 18% → 31% +14CHI 18% → 31%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -278 / CHI +225
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- NY: Elo 74.3%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -239
- CHI +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 119.5 – 113.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −8 | NY: Usual rotation · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +185 Elo | NY 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.0 | Points scored | 110.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.3 | Points allowed | 129.530th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −18.830th of 30 |
| 27th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 100.330th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 117.324th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.4 | Pace | 110.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301555 | Opponent Elo | 147421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301642 | Elo rating | 139126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 57–45 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–37 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 7–4 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 3CHI 96 @ NY 136Picked NY 89%Hit
- Feb 22NY 105 @ CHI 99Picked NY 76%Hit
- Nov 2CHI 116 @ NY 128Picked NY 72%Hit
- Oct 31NY 125 @ CHI 135Picked NY 64%Miss
- Feb 20CHI 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 78%Hit
- Jan 4NY 126 @ CHI 139Picked NY 66%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 124 @ NY 123Picked NY 75%Miss
- Apr 14CHI 119 @ NY 120Picked NY 68%Hit