Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 85% to 85% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Norman PowellPoints20
- Josh GiddeyAssists4
- Leonard MillerRebounds9
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–134
- Q44.0Tobe Awaka offensive rebound99–134
- Q44.0Jaylin Sellers misses 24-foot three point jumper99–134
- Q416.7shot clock turnover99–134
- Q441.2Noa Essengue enters the game for Caleb Wilson99–134
- Q441.2Hugo Gonzalez makes free throw flagrant 2 of 299–134
- Q441.2(00:41.2) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)99–133
- Q441.2Hugo Gonzalez makes free throw flagrant 1 of 299–133
- Q441.2Caleb Wilson flagrant foul type 199–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)CHI 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 84% → 88% +3BOS 84% → 88%+3 pts
- Q110:11Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHI 2 – 6 BOS · BOS 85% → 89% +3BOS 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q19:13Jalen Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 7 – 9 BOS · CHI 10% → 14% +3CHI 10% → 14%+3 pts
- Q13:33Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 18 – 19 BOS · CHI 12% → 16% +4CHI 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q12:40Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 18 – 22 BOS · BOS 84% → 87% +4BOS 84% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML CHI +525 / BOS -750
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.7%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -551
- CHI +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 109.0 – 123.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −28 | CHI: Usual rotation · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +207 Elo | BOS 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 114.919th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.2 | Margin | +7.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–28 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 26th of 301401 | Elo rating | 15886th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–21 | 36–29 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 32–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–8 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 11CHI 105 @ BOS 124Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Jan 24BOS 111 @ CHI 114Picked BOS 58%Miss
- Jan 5CHI 101 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Jan 29CHI 100 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Dec 21BOS 123 @ CHI 98Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 19CHI 117 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 29BOS 138 @ CHI 129Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Mar 23BOS 124 @ CHI 113Picked BOS 59%Hit