Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BKN went from 42% to 41% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Naz ReidPoints28
- Grayson AllenAssists4
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points26
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists8
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–114
- Q418.7Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound104–114
- Q418.7Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot104–114
- Q427.0Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Terance Mann assists)104–114
- Q450.6Nets defensive team rebound104–112
- Q450.6Brandon Miller misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot104–112
- Q41:03Hornets defensive team rebound104–112
- Q41:03Terance Mann misses 12-foot fade away jump shot104–112
- Q41:07Terance Mann offensive rebound104–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:26Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikel Brown Jr. assists)CHA 80 – 83 BKN · BKN 45% → 58% +13BKN 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q411:06Naz Reid makes 26-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)CHA 83 – 83 BKN · CHA 42% → 55% +13CHA 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q410:22Danny Wolf makes 25-foot running jump shot (Terance Mann assists)CHA 83 – 86 BKN · BKN 46% → 59% +13BKN 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q48:34Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)CHA 87 – 92 BKN · BKN 56% → 70% +14BKN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q47:37Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)CHA 89 – 96 BKN · BKN 67% → 79% +13BKN 67% → 79%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hornets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -3.5
- ML CHA -162 / BKN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- CHA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CHA: Elo 52.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -146
- BKN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.5 – 105.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1339 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +39 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −30, Coby White (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +20 Elo | CHA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3097.4 | Points scored | 105.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 114.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.3 | Margin | −8.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3099.7 | Offense rating | 103.229th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
| 26th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 15259th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 133929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 6–5 BKN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Oct 21CHA 110 @ BKN 103Picked BKN 50%Miss
- Mar 31CHA 117 @ BKN 86Picked CHA 92%Hit
- Dec 1CHA 103 @ BKN 116Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Oct 22BKN 117 @ CHA 136Picked CHA 65%Hit
- Mar 8BKN 102 @ CHA 105Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Feb 10CHA 89 @ BKN 97Picked BKN 62%Hit
- Jan 29BKN 104 @ CHA 83Picked CHA 52%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 115 @ BKN 116Picked BKN 53%Hit