Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 82% to 82% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 11:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points27
- Mikel Brown Jr.Assists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints40
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Paul GeorgeRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game124–125
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime124–125
- OT0.0(00:00) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–125
- OT0.0Jayson Tatum makes 17-foot turnaround jump shot (Derrick White assists)124–125
- OT2.3Sam Hauser enters the game for Jordan Walsh124–123
- OT2.3Payton Pritchard enters the game for Baylor Scheierman124–123
- OT2.3Celtics Full timeout124–123
- OT2.3Paul George defensive rebound124–123
- OT2.3Mikel Brown Jr. misses layup124–123
- OT6.1Jordan Walsh enters the game for Luka Garza124–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q444.9Mikel Brown Jr. makes driving layupBKN 111 – 111 BOS · BKN 17% → 46% +28BKN 17% → 46%+28 pts
- Q433.7Derrick White makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)BKN 111 – 113 BOS · BOS 54% → 86% +32BOS 54% → 86%+32 pts
- Q41.0Mikel Brown Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)BKN 117 – 117 BOS · BKN 0% → 49% +49BKN 0% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:01Mikel Brown Jr. makes 32-foot three pointerBKN 124 – 119 BOS · BKN 63% → 86% +23BKN 63% → 86%+23 pts
- OT0.0Jayson Tatum makes 17-foot turnaround jump shot (Derrick White assists)BKN 124 – 125 BOS · BOS 0% → 100% +100BOS 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BKN +425 / BOS -575
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 74.7%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -447
- BKN +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 117.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +34 | −30 | BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −2, Mikel Brown Jr. (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +188 Elo | BOS 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 118.09th of 30 |
| 26th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 107.78th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−12.7 | Margin | +10.36th of 30 |
| 24th of 30104.4 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 106.39th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.2 | Pace | 101.324th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 154210th of 30 |
| 28th of 301342 | Elo rating | 15986th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BKN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 36–29 |
| Underdog | 32–43 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 32–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–11 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Feb 27BKN 111 @ BOS 148Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Jan 23BOS 130 @ BKN 126Picked BOS 75%Hit
- Nov 21BKN 113 @ BOS 105Picked BOS 84%Miss
- Nov 18BOS 113 @ BKN 99Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Mar 18BKN 96 @ BOS 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Mar 15BOS 115 @ BKN 113Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Nov 13BOS 139 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 8BKN 104 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 85%Hit