Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NY went from 87% to 88% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Julius RandlePoints21
- Nolan TraoreAssists4
- Julius RandleRebounds11
Knicks- Landry ShametPoints22
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–103
- Q414.2shot clock turnover90–103
- Q439.0Nolan Traore makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikel Brown Jr. assists)90–103
- Q445.7Landry Shamet makes 2-foot layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)87–103
- Q459.1Julius Randle bad pass
turnover (Miles McBride steals)87–101
- Q41:05Julius Randle offensive rebound87–101
- Q41:05Mikel Brown Jr. misses running pullup jump shot87–101
- Q41:10Mikel Brown Jr. defensive rebound87–101
- Q41:10Keon Ellis blocks OG Anunoby's layup87–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:39Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Moritz Wagner assists)BKN 73 – 69 NY · BKN 30% → 40% +10BKN 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q32:26Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)BKN 73 – 72 NY · NY 60% → 70% +11NY 60% → 70%+11 pts
- Q31:00Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)BKN 77 – 75 NY · NY 54% → 65% +12NY 54% → 65%+12 pts
- Q410:49Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)BKN 79 – 78 NY · NY 54% → 67% +13NY 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q410:29OG Anunoby makes 24-foot running jump shot (Josh Hart assists)BKN 79 – 81 NY · NY 66% → 78% +11NY 66% → 78%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -14.5
- ML BKN +660 / NY -1020
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11.5
- NY 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NY: Elo 86.3%, market 87.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -692
- BKN +692 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 102.0 – 116.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | −1 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +320 Elo | NY 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 86.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 86.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 87.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 107.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−7.8 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.7 | Offense rating | 106.822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 107.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.425th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 30 |
| 16th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15318th of 30 |
| 29th of 301342 | Elo rating | 16381st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BKN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 57–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 43–37 |
| Underdog | 32–43 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 48–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–12 NY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.