Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
IND went from 60% to 60% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points23
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds13
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints23
- Pascal SiakamAssists5
- Jarace WalkerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–90
- Q418.0Noah Clowney enters the game for Julius Randle98–90
- Q418.0delay of game violation98–90
- Q418.0shot clock turnover98–90
- Q439.4Moritz Wagner enters the game for Chaney Johnson98–90
- Q439.4Keon Ellis enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe98–90
- Q439.4Kobe Brown enters the game for Pascal Siakam98–90
- Q439.4Braden Smith enters the game for Andrew Nembhard98–90
- Q439.4Nets Full timeout98–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:11Quenton Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)BKN 60 – 56 IND · IND 32% → 42% +10IND 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q34:48Nolan Traore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)BKN 63 – 56 IND · BKN 58% → 68% +10BKN 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q49:57Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)BKN 75 – 69 IND · IND 18% → 28% +10IND 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q49:29Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BKN 75 – 72 IND · IND 28% → 41% +13IND 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q49:14Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 78 – 72 IND · BKN 60% → 73% +13BKN 60% → 73%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 58%
- Fair odds
- IND -150
- BKN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 113.2 – 116.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −6 | BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −2, Mikel Brown Jr. −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −56, Ivica Zubac −18, T.J. McConnell −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | IND +57 Elo | IND 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.2 | Points scored | 116.712th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 119.824th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.0 | Margin | −3.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.2 | Offense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.6 | Pace | 103.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 30 |
| 7th of 301539 | Opponent Elo | 144129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301331 | Elo rating | 139424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−17 Elo- Ivica Zubac left ankle injury−20 Elo
- Obi Toppin low back soreness−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BKN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 32–43 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–8 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Oct 25IND 136 @ BKN 109Picked IND 64%Hit
- Apr 9IND 123 @ BKN 94Picked IND 59%Hit
- Feb 11IND 115 @ BKN 110Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Nov 5BKN 112 @ IND 103Picked IND 69%Miss
- Mar 22BKN 103 @ IND 108Picked IND 83%Hit
- Mar 20BKN 99 @ IND 105Picked IND 73%Hit
- Jan 6IND 113 @ BKN 99Picked IND 81%Hit
- Dec 4IND 90 @ BKN 99Picked IND 59%Miss