Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BKN went from 27% to 27% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints20
- Ausar ThompsonAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds9
Nets- Moritz WagnerPoints16
- Mikel Brown Jr.Assists4
- Noah ClowneyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–94
- Q40.4Pistons offensive team rebound110–94
- Q40.4Ebuka Okorie misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot110–94
- Q43.8Danny Wolf makes 26-foot three pointer110–94
- Q412.7Ronald Holland II makes 3-foot driving dunk110–91
- Q413.1Nolan Traore bad pass
turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)108–91
- Q424.0Nolan Traore defensive rebound108–91
- Q424.0Nolan Traore blocks Ebuka Okorie 's 4-foot driving layup108–91
- Q437.8Terance Mann makes two point shot108–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:18Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikel Brown Jr. assists)DET 23 – 31 BKN · BKN 41% → 48% +7BKN 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q29:43Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 29 – 35 BKN · DET 49% → 56% +7DET 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q28:48Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 32 – 37 BKN · DET 50% → 58% +7DET 50% → 58%+7 pts
- Q26:37Daniss Jenkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 38 – 39 BKN · DET 59% → 67% +7DET 59% → 67%+7 pts
- Q24:00Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 47 – 45 BKN · DET 66% → 73% +7DET 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML DET -325 / BKN +260
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 68.3%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -275
- BKN +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.5 – 107.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +54 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −26, Isaiah Joe (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Tyler Bilodeau −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +133 Elo | DET 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.4 | Points allowed | 124.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −9.825th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 106.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.0 | Defense rating | 115.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.6 | Pace | 104.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Opponent Elo | 151912th of 30 |
| 6th of 301601 | Elo rating | 134029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DET |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–46 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–42 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 32–43 |
| Overs–unders | 46–50 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–4 BKN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 10DET 138 @ BKN 100Picked DET 88%Hit
- Mar 7BKN 107 @ DET 105Picked DET 85%Miss
- Feb 1BKN 77 @ DET 130Picked DET 84%Hit
- Nov 7DET 125 @ BKN 107Picked DET 76%Hit
- Mar 1BKN 94 @ DET 115Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 8DET 113 @ BKN 98Picked DET 78%Hit
- Nov 3DET 106 @ BKN 92Picked BKN 58%Miss
- Apr 6DET 103 @ BKN 113Picked BKN 75%Hit