Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHA went from 36% to 34% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds6
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints17
- Brandon MillerAssists4
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–91
- Q417.6shot clock turnover124–91
- Q440.8Isaac Jones makes tip shot124–91
- Q441.8Isaac Jones offensive rebound122–91
- Q441.8Ebuka Okorie misses running pullup jump shot122–91
- Q447.5Christian Anderson bad pass
turnover (Tolu Smith steals)122–91
- Q453.3Christian Anderson defensive rebound122–91
- Q453.3Chaz Lanier misses 24-foot three point jumper122–91
- Q41:03Ebuka Okorie defensive rebound122–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:50Ronald Holland II makes 24-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 18 – 17 CHA · DET 60% → 67% +7DET 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q25:43Cade Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 44 – 38 CHA · DET 70% → 77% +6DET 70% → 77%+6 pts
- Q21:20Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)DET 59 – 51 CHA · DET 75% → 81% +6DET 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q35:52Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)DET 79 – 73 CHA · CHA 15% → 22% +7CHA 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q34:39Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerDET 82 – 75 CHA · DET 73% → 81% +8DET 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML DET -223 / CHA +185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 61.4%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -197
- CHA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 102.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1609 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −47 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +80 Elo | DET 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30109.8 | Points scored | 98.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.8 | Points allowed | 106.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.0 | Margin | −8.124th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 100.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 109.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.3 | Pace | 97.330th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 12th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 145226th of 30 |
| 6th of 301609 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–2 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Oct 28CHA 89 @ DET 97Picked DET 71%Hit
- Apr 10DET 118 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 66%Miss
- Feb 9DET 110 @ CHA 104Picked DET 55%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 86 @ DET 112Picked DET 80%Hit
- Feb 9CHA 102 @ DET 112Picked DET 84%Hit
- Jan 3CHA 94 @ DET 98Picked DET 72%Hit
- Nov 21DET 121 @ CHA 123Picked DET 57%Miss
- Nov 6DET 107 @ CHA 108Picked DET 51%Miss