Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CLE went from 55% to 45% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jaylen BrownPoints20
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- LeBron JamesRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Mario HezonjaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)95–119
- Q45.4Mario Hezonja makes layup (Norchad Omier assists)95–119
- Q419.5Justin Edwards makes 31-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)95–117
- Q428.9Meleek Thomas out of bounds bad pass turnover92–117
- Q431.0Labaron Philon Jr. lost ball turnover (Craig Porter Jr. steals)92–117
- Q439.3Thomas Bryant makes free throw 3 of 392–117
- Q439.3Thomas Bryant makes free throw 2 of 392–116
- Q439.3Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 392–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27.0James Harden makes 25-foot three point shotPHI 54 – 62 CLE · CLE 61% → 69% +8CLE 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:58Tyrese Maxey makes 31-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 61 – 64 CLE · PHI 35% → 44% +9PHI 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:38James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 65 – 70 CLE · CLE 54% → 63% +10CLE 54% → 63%+10 pts
- Q37:07Peyton Watson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)PHI 65 – 73 CLE · CLE 63% → 72% +9CLE 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q35:59Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 68 – 73 CLE · PHI 27% → 36% +9PHI 27% → 36%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -132 / CLE +111
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.1%, market 54.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- CLE +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.5 – 113.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | −8 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen (40% to sit) −11 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +79 Elo | PHI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.2 | Points allowed | 117.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +2.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 113.99th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Defense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 30 |
| 11th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 151016th of 30 |
| 9th of 301555 | Elo rating | 154710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–8 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Oct 22CLE 106 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 56%Hit
- Mar 9PHI 101 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 16CLE 117 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Jan 14CLE 133 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 50%Miss
- Nov 5PHI 121 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 129 @ PHI 132Picked CLE 77%Miss
- Dec 21PHI 99 @ CLE 126Picked CLE 77%Hit
- Nov 13CLE 114 @ PHI 106Picked CLE 83%Hit