Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DET went from 56% to 53% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds15
Pistons- Duncan RobinsonPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–106
- Q40.5Pistons offensive team rebound112–106
- Q40.5Ausar Thompson misses heave jump shot112–106
- Q41.6LeBron James lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)112–106
- Q46.7Ausar Thompson enters the game for Kevin Huerter112–106
- Q46.7Ronald Holland II enters the game for Duncan Robinson112–106
- Q46.776ers Full timeout112–106
- Q410.7Joel Embiid defensive rebound112–106
- Q410.7Daniss Jenkins misses 24-foot three point jumper112–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:09Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)PHI 21 – 20 DET · DET 44% → 51% +7DET 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q10.0Jaylen Brown makes 38-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 29 – 21 DET · PHI 59% → 66% +7PHI 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q38:02LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 67 – 54 DET · PHI 77% → 84% +7PHI 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q36:19Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)PHI 70 – 61 DET · DET 17% → 24% +7DET 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q34:11Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)PHI 77 – 68 DET · DET 15% → 22% +7DET 15% → 22%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML PHI +106 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 50.4%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.5 – 110.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +84 | −28 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −33, Isaiah Joe −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.9 | Points scored | 111.918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Points allowed | 100.31st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +11.63rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.0 | Defense rating | 100.41st of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 151113th of 30 |
| 10th of 301548 | Elo rating | 16264th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–7 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Oct 25DET 106 @ PHI 93Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Apr 4DET 116 @ PHI 93Picked DET 60%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 109 @ DET 131Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 14PHI 105 @ DET 114Picked DET 52%Hit
- Nov 9DET 111 @ PHI 108Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 7PHI 112 @ DET 125Picked PHI 67%Miss
- Nov 30PHI 111 @ DET 96Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Oct 30DET 105 @ PHI 95Picked PHI 62%Miss