Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PHI went from 82% to 71% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Caleb WilsonPoints24
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Caleb WilsonRebounds7
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–126
- Q47.3Justin Edwards defensive rebound107–126
- Q47.3Jaylin Sellers misses free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q47.3Jaylin Sellers makes free throw 1 of 2107–126
- Q47.3Labaron Philon Jr. shooting foul106–126
- Q410.4Rayan Rupert makes two point shot106–126
- Q411.6Rayan Rupert offensive rebound106–124
- Q411.6Labaron Philon Jr. misses two point shot106–124
- Q429.0Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 2106–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:41Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three pointer (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 41 – 40 PHI · CHI 21% → 27% +6CHI 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q25:35Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)CHI 45 – 44 PHI · PHI 66% → 73% +7PHI 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q24:41Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)CHI 47 – 47 PHI · PHI 68% → 75% +7PHI 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q21.0Caleb Wilson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 59 – 64 PHI · CHI 12% → 16% +5CHI 12% → 16%+5 pts
- Q311:33Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 62 – 64 PHI · CHI 16% → 23% +6CHI 16% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -10.5
- ML CHI +394 / PHI -518
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -10.5
- PHI 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 84.2%, market 80.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -414
- CHI +414 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 125.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +87 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +291 Elo | PHI 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 83.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 80.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 108.723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.3 | Points allowed | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−15.8 | Margin | +3.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 106.723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 102.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30109.3 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 15337th of 30 |
| 26th of 301383 | Elo rating | 154411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–4 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Mar 25CHI 137 @ PHI 157Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Dec 26PHI 102 @ CHI 109Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Nov 4PHI 111 @ CHI 113Picked CHI 54%Hit
- Apr 13CHI 122 @ PHI 102Picked CHI 73%Hit
- Feb 24CHI 142 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 68%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 109 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Dec 8PHI 108 @ CHI 100Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Jan 2CHI 97 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 71%Hit