Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIL went from 26% to 24% over 11 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints27
- James HardenAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Bucks- Kel'el WarePoints19
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–111
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound136–111
- Q40.1Brayden Burries misses heave jump shot136–111
- Q40.6shot clock turnover136–111
- Q426.5Cavaliers defensive team rebound136–111
- Q426.5Nate Ament misses 23-foot three point jumper136–111
- Q442.9Tyrese Proctor makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)136–111
- Q458.0Brayden Burries makes free throw 2 of 2133–111
- Q458.0Brayden Burries makes free throw 1 of 2133–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:21Kasparas Jakucionis makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CLE 12 – 18 MIL · MIL 31% → 37% +6MIL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q14:56James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 15 – 18 MIL · CLE 62% → 69% +6CLE 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q211:08Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brayden Burries assists)CLE 27 – 28 MIL · MIL 23% → 29% +6MIL 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q210:33Brayden Burries makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nate Ament assists)CLE 27 – 31 MIL · MIL 30% → 36% +7MIL 30% → 36%+7 pts
- Q210:19Meleek Thomas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 30 – 31 MIL · CLE 64% → 70% +7CLE 64% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CLE -380 / MIL +300
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 68.4%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -317
- MIL +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 122.5 – 113.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −3 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +134 Elo | CLE 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 113.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 124.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −10.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 107.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.9 | Pace | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
| 24th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 145325th of 30 |
| 9th of 301554 | Elo rating | 140524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–60 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders | 52–48 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–3 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Mar 17CLE 123 @ MIL 116Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Feb 25CLE 116 @ MIL 118Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Nov 17MIL 106 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Oct 26MIL 113 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Mar 9CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 20MIL 101 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 114 @ CLE 116Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 2CLE 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 54%Miss