Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIL went from 22% to 26% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints24
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds9
Bucks- Tyler HerroPoints23
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–100
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound132–100
- Q40.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses heave jump shot132–100
- Q41.6Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot132–100
- Q413.5Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot132–97
- Q417.6Brayden Burries lost ball turnover (Bogdan Bogdanovic steals)129–97
- Q427.1Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot129–97
- Q437.2Bogoljub Markovic makes tip shot126–97
- Q438.2Bogoljub Markovic offensive rebound126–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Tyler Herro makes 32-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)HOU 0 – 3 MIL · MIL 26% → 31% +5MIL 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q110:53Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 3 – 3 MIL · HOU 68% → 74% +5HOU 68% → 74%+5 pts
- Q14:24Reed Sheppard makes 23-foot running jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 16 – 11 MIL · HOU 76% → 81% +5HOU 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q12:26AJ Green makes 27-foot three pointer (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)HOU 16 – 19 MIL · MIL 28% → 34% +6MIL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q29:43AJ Green makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)HOU 31 – 24 MIL · MIL 12% → 16% +4MIL 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML HOU -340 / MIL +270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -286
- MIL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.5 – 109.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +5 | HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −31, Steven Adams −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +109 Elo | HOU 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 116.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 122.325th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+9.8 | Margin | −5.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 109.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 114.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30102.1 | Pace | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 141429th of 30 |
| 7th of 301590 | Elo rating | 142123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−10 Elo- Alperen Sengun low back soreness−36 Elo
Bucks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–50 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–46 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.