Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ATL went from 46% to 47% over 7 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints24
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints29
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–114
- Q41.4Cavaliers offensive team rebound111–114
- Q41.4Donovan Mitchell misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot111–114
- Q48.7Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound111–114
- Q48.7Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–114
- Q415.3Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum111–114
- Q415.3Luguentz Dort enters the game for Aaron Wiggins111–114
- Q415.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2111–114
- Q415.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:21Jarrett Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)CLE 82 – 83 ATL · CLE 36% → 48% +12CLE 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q443.2Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 3 of 3CLE 109 – 110 ATL · CLE 20% → 34% +14CLE 20% → 34%+14 pts
- Q428.2Onyeka Okongwu makes two point shotCLE 109 – 112 ATL · ATL 70% → 94% +24ATL 70% → 94%+24 pts
- Q420.6Donovan Mitchell makes 5-foot two point shotCLE 111 – 112 ATL · CLE 3% → 27% +24CLE 3% → 27%+24 pts
- Q415.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 111 – 113 ATL · ATL 76% → 92% +16ATL 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Cavaliers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Fair odds
- CLE -115
- ATL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.5 – 115.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | −35 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Aaron Wiggins (40% to sit) −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +30 Elo | CLE 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +5.010th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 109.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 30105.0 | Pace | 105.47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301452 | Opponent Elo | 15387th of 30 |
| 9th of 301559 | Elo rating | 152314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–60 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 52–48 | 44–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 10CLE 102 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 75%Hit
- Apr 8ATL 116 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 61%Hit
- Nov 28CLE 123 @ ATL 130Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 2ATL 109 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 30ATL 115 @ CLE 137Picked CLE 82%Hit
- Nov 29CLE 101 @ ATL 117Picked CLE 68%Miss
- Nov 27ATL 135 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Miss
- Mar 6CLE 101 @ ATL 112Picked CLE 61%Miss