Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CLE went from 47% to 52% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints43
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints17
- Donovan MitchellAssists11
- Mario HezonjaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q47.2Micah Peavy defensive rebound117–112
- Q47.2Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–112
- Q415.4Micah Peavy enters the game for Bennett Stirtz117–112
- Q415.4Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2117–112
- Q415.4Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2116–112
- Q415.4James Harden personal foul115–112
- Q416.8Bennett Stirtz enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein115–112
- Q416.8Thunder Full timeout115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:06Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot two point shotOKC 105 – 104 CLE · OKC 34% → 53% +19OKC 34% → 53%+19 pts
- Q41:51Isaiah Hartenstein makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 110 – 109 CLE · OKC 28% → 58% +30OKC 28% → 58%+30 pts
- Q41:16Ajay Mitchell makes 14-foot pullup jump shotOKC 112 – 109 CLE · OKC 61% → 82% +21OKC 61% → 82%+21 pts
- Q41:01Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)OKC 112 – 112 CLE · CLE 15% → 52% +37CLE 15% → 52%+37 pts
- Q432.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 115 – 112 CLE · OKC 49% → 92% +44OKC 49% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML OKC +146 / CLE -173
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- OKC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.5 – 117.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −101 | +31 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +108 Elo | CLE 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 116.020th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +5.010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 114.48th of 30 |
| 9th of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 109.715th of 30 |
| 28th of 30100.0 | Pace | 104.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Opponent Elo | 145725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301626 | Elo rating | 15669th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–1 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.