Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 21% to 34% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Ajay MitchellPoints29
- Jared McCainAssists4
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints26
- Cooper FlaggAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–120
- Q48.9shot clock turnover96–120
- Q434.6Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound96–120
- Q434.6Josh Dix misses 24-foot three point jumper96–120
- Q446.9shot clock turnover96–120
- Q41:11Brooks Barnhizer makes 8-foot two point shot96–120
- Q41:33Aday Mara defensive rebound94–120
- Q41:33Moussa Cisse misses two point shot94–120
- Q41:42Marcus Sasser enters the game for Max Christie94–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:07Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)OKC 36 – 46 DAL · DAL 55% → 62% +7DAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:02Marcus Sasser makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 42 – 54 DAL · DAL 61% → 69% +7DAL 61% → 69%+7 pts
- Q23:28Ajay Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)OKC 51 – 56 DAL · OKC 40% → 49% +8OKC 40% → 49%+8 pts
- Q39:25Max Christie makes 22-foot running jump shot (Kyrie Irving assists)OKC 61 – 70 DAL · DAL 58% → 67% +9DAL 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:56Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 71 – 78 DAL · OKC 27% → 36% +9OKC 27% → 36%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -218 / DAL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 66.6%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -192
- DAL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 111.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1664 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | +10 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −36, Jalen Williams −27, Ajay Mitchell (40% to sit) −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Kyrie Irving (40% to sit) −17, Dereck Lively II −13, Santi Aldama −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +120 Elo | OKC 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30100.8 | Points allowed | 116.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+10.5 | Margin | −3.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 109.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3099.0 | Defense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
| 4th of 301547 | Opponent Elo | 152510th of 30 |
| 1st of 301666 | Elo rating | 143021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OKC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–50 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders | 55–42 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–8 DAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.
- Mar 1OKC 100 @ DAL 87Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 5DAL 111 @ OKC 132Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Oct 27OKC 101 @ DAL 94Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Jan 23DAL 121 @ OKC 115Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Jan 17OKC 98 @ DAL 106Picked OKC 57%Miss
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit