Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 41% to 56% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Ajay MitchellAssists5
- Aday MaraRebounds9
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points30
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–119
- Q418.4Brooks Barnhizer makes free throw 1 of 198–119
- Q418.4Bogdan Bogdanovic shooting foul97–119
- Q418.4Brooks Barnhizer makes layup (Bennett Stirtz assists)97–119
- Q428.1Bruce Thornton makes 26-foot three pointer95–119
- Q448.5Brooks Barnhizer makes free throw 2 of 295–116
- Q448.5Brooks Barnhizer makes free throw 1 of 294–116
- Q448.5Bogdan Bogdanovic shooting foul93–116
- Q455.1Bennett Stirtz defensive rebound93–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:30Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumperOKC 4 – 3 HOU · HOU 48% → 54% +6HOU 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q17:22Marcus Smart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)OKC 8 – 12 HOU · HOU 58% → 64% +6HOU 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q17:08Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 11 – 12 HOU · OKC 36% → 42% +6OKC 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q15:51Tari Eason makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)OKC 11 – 16 HOU · HOU 60% → 67% +6HOU 60% → 67%+6 pts
- Q15:21Bennett Stirtz makes 25-foot three pointer (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 14 – 18 HOU · OKC 29% → 35% +6OKC 29% → 35%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML OKC +120 / HOU -142
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- OKC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 108.5 – 111.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −80 | +17 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −31, Jalen Williams −22, Alex Caruso −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.6 | Points allowed | 110.011th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +11.04th of 30 |
| 20th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 119.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Defense rating | 108.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.817th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 1st of 301639 | Elo rating | 15967th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+27 Elo- Steven Adams right leg−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  OKC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–50 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 31–46 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 55–42 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 7–5 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Feb 7HOU 112 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 59%Miss
- Jan 15OKC 111 @ HOU 91Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Oct 21HOU 124 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Apr 4OKC 111 @ HOU 125Picked OKC 68%Miss
- Mar 3HOU 128 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Dec 14HOU 96 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Dec 1OKC 116 @ HOU 119Picked OKC 52%Miss
- Nov 8HOU 107 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit