Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 26% to 33% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Tari EasonRebounds13
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Kyrie IrvingAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–116
- Q41.3Rockets offensive team rebound111–116
- Q41.3Jabari Smith Jr. misses heave jump shot111–116
- Q43.1Kevin Durant enters the game for Marcus Smart111–116
- Q43.1Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Max Christie111–116
- Q43.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q43.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2111–115
- Q43.1Fred VanVleet personal take foul111–114
- Q43.6Tari Eason enters the game for Kevin Durant111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:21Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)HOU 96 – 96 DAL · HOU 35% → 55% +20HOU 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q42:26Fred VanVleet makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 100 – 100 DAL · HOU 36% → 54% +18HOU 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q42:08Kyrie Irving makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)HOU 100 – 102 DAL · DAL 46% → 65% +19DAL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q459.9Kevin Durant makes 16-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 105 – 107 DAL · HOU 8% → 26% +17HOU 8% → 26%+17 pts
- Q415.8Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 108 – 109 DAL · HOU <1% → 25% +25HOU <1% → 25%+25 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rockets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -238 / DAL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.0%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -208
- DAL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 108.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +18 | HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun (40% to sit) −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −11, Santi Aldama −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +108 Elo | HOU 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.0 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 112.014th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+14.2 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 9th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 109.815th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15473rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301605 | Elo rating | 145621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−17 Elo- Alperen Sengun low back soreness−38 Elo
Mavericks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–6 DAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- Oct 21DAL 110 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Jan 31DAL 107 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 78%Hit
- Jan 3HOU 104 @ DAL 110Picked HOU 73%Miss
- Dec 6HOU 109 @ DAL 122Picked HOU 69%Miss
- Nov 3DAL 102 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit