Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
OKC went from 52% to 55% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Tue, Nov 3, 10:03 PM ESTAlex Caruso back · forecast OKC 57%
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints42
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–124
- Q413.8Thunder defensive team rebound116–124
- Q413.8Donovan Mitchell misses 27-foot three point jumper116–124
- Q415.0Cavaliers Full timeout116–124
- Q415.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2116–124
- Q415.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2116–123
- Q415.0Mario Hezonja enters the game for Craig Porter Jr.116–122
- Q415.0Micah Peavy enters the game for Bennett Stirtz116–122
- Q415.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jared McCain116–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Kenrich Williams makes 28-foot running jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)CLE 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 55% → 61% +6OKC 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q19:06Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 4 – 8 OKC · OKC 57% → 63% +6OKC 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q18:12Tyrese Proctor makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 9 – 10 OKC · CLE 37% → 43% +6CLE 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q17:58Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 9 – 13 OKC · OKC 57% → 63% +6OKC 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q39:51James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 51 – 60 OKC · CLE 16% → 22% +6CLE 16% → 22%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Thunder 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML CLE +114 / OKC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- OKC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 52.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.0 – 115.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −77 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −37, Jalen Williams −29 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +16 Elo | OKC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 108.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 107.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 108.022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 107.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15375th of 30 |
| 9th of 301556 | Elo rating | 16363rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–6 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.