Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast

FinalNBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Celtics

7-2

119–80

at

Home

Hornets

3-7

BOS 74%CHA 26%

You didn't pick this one.

Spectrum Center

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.

CHA favored BOS favored99 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4CHA50%BOS

How the forecast moved

CHA went from 28% to 26% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.

Forecast (CHA win chance) Betting line, margin removed Injury news
20%33%45%Mon 9 PMWed 8 PMFri 7 PM

Mon, Nov 2, 9:47 PM ESTPaul George back · forecast CHA 27%

Wed, Nov 4, 11:31 PM ESTJayson Tatum out · forecast CHA 35%

Fri, Nov 6, 12:02 AM ESTJayson Tatum back · forecast CHA 26%

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Hornets

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game119–80
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–80
  • Q48.9shot clock turnover119–80
  • Q433.4Hannes Steinbach makes 1-foot dunk (Liam McNeeley assists)119–80
  • Q437.0Hugo Gonzalez bad pass turnover (Liam McNeeley steals)119–78
  • Q444.8Liam McNeeley makes running dunk (Christian Anderson assists)119–78
  • Q448.4Luka Garza lost ball turnover (Royce O'Neale steals)119–76
  • Q456.4Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound119–76
  • Q456.4Christian Anderson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–76
  • Q41:06Hugo Gonzalez makes free throw 2 of 2119–76

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:22Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 3 – 0 CHA · BOS 74% → 79% +5
  2. Q110:35Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)BOS 6 – 0 CHA · BOS 79% → 83% +4
  3. Q19:02Derrick White makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 9 – 2 CHA · BOS 80% → 84% +4
  4. Q17:54Derrick White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 15 – 4 CHA · BOS 86% → 89% +3
  5. Q13:12Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 29 – 16 CHA · BOS 88% → 91% +3

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Celtics 74%

StrongHit
BOS 74%CHA 26%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
BOS -8.5
ML BOS -344 / CHA +276
Pre-line forecast
BOS 72%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -4.5
BOS 67%
Ratings vs. market
−7.9 pts
BOS: Elo 66.5%, market 74.4%
Fair odds
BOS -291
CHA +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
ESPN's forecast
BOS 77%
Their last number before the game. Head-to-head
Pregame projection
BOS 109.5 – 101.0 CHA
Posted spread, posted total 210.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSCHAWhy
Team rating16081483Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−24−54BOS: Missing Payton Pritchard (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −25, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBOS +119 EloBOS 66.5%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 72.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 72.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 74.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatCHA
14th of 30114.3Points scored98.130th of 30
6th of 30108.3Points allowed109.210th of 30
8th of 30+6.0Margin−11.126th of 30
8th of 30114.2Offense rating100.430th of 30
9th of 30108.2Defense rating111.820th of 30
28th of 3098.7Pace97.430th of 30
19th of 301–2Road vs home2–320th of 30
22nd of 301478Opponent Elo146227th of 30
6th of 301608Elo rating148317th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−16 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Hornets

−57 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsHornets
125013501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSCHA
Against the spread2–53–6
Last 102–53–6
Favorite2–41–2
Underdog0–12–4
Overs–unders4–33–6
Overs–unders, last 104–33–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 8–2 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.