Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
HOU went from 60% to 59% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints19
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds6
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–109
- Q47.9Chris Cenac Jr. makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Ron Harper Jr. assists)93–109
- Q420.5Bruce Thornton makes 17-foot pullup jump shot91–109
- Q442.2Jordan Walsh makes 11-foot pullup jump shot91–107
- Q41:02Jordan Walsh defensive rebound89–107
- Q41:02Jae'Sean Tate misses 26-foot three point shot89–107
- Q41:28Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound89–107
- Q41:28Jordan Walsh misses 29-foot three point jumper89–107
- Q41:42Bruce Thornton enters the game for Amen Thompson89–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:33Jabari Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)BOS 32 – 36 HOU · HOU 62% → 69% +7HOU 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q310:19Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)BOS 55 – 63 HOU · HOU 72% → 79% +7HOU 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q39:25Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 60 – 63 HOU · BOS 25% → 33% +8BOS 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q37:28Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot running jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)BOS 62 – 68 HOU · HOU 67% → 75% +8HOU 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q34:51Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot running jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)BOS 68 – 75 HOU · HOU 70% → 79% +8HOU 70% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML BOS +150 / HOU -179
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -160
- BOS +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 105.5 – 110.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +12 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +106 Elo | HOU 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 108.37th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+9.5 | Margin | +12.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 107.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 151013th of 30 |
| 6th of 301613 | Elo rating | 16097th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.