Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ORL went from 34% to 35% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints23
- Franz WagnerAssists12
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–97
- Q49.1Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Paul George108–97
- Q49.1Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jayson Tatum108–97
- Q49.1shot clock turnover108–97
- Q431.4Wendell Carter Jr. lost ball turnover (Paul George steals)108–97
- Q436.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound108–97
- Q436.1Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shot108–97
- Q447.6Neemias Queta enters the game for Sam Hauser108–97
- Q447.6Paul George enters the game for Payton Pritchard108–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:41Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 72 – 66 ORL · BOS 69% → 78% +9BOS 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q32:12Tristan da Silva makes 24-foot three pointer (Anthony Black assists)BOS 72 – 69 ORL · ORL 22% → 31% +9ORL 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q346.1Anthony Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Cain assists)BOS 72 – 72 ORL · ORL 31% → 42% +11ORL 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q49:50Luka Garza makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)BOS 85 – 79 ORL · BOS 70% → 81% +11BOS 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q47:12Paul George makes 23-foot three pointer (Luka Garza assists)BOS 90 – 83 ORL · BOS 76% → 86% +11BOS 76% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Celtics 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 60%
- Fair odds
- BOS -188
- ORL +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.4 – 109.6 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −29 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −28 (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +71 Elo | BOS 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 118.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+9.2 | Margin | −8.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 106.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 114.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 30 |
| 24th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 15631st of 30 |
| 7th of 301605 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–38 | 42–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–29 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 32–57 | 47–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–5 ORL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
- Apr 12ORL 108 @ BOS 113Picked ORL 85%Miss
- Nov 23ORL 129 @ BOS 138Picked BOS 62%Hit
- Nov 9BOS 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 59%Miss
- Nov 7BOS 110 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Apr 29ORL 89 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 84%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 107 @ ORL 98PlayoffsPicked BOS 73%Hit
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit